Thursday, May 31, 2007

Part 4:Capai "Leading and Enlightening" dari Kampus Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta


Research Group (Principal Investigator):

Sri Atmaja P. Rosyidi (UMY), Surya Budi Lesmana (UMY), Dr.Chu-Chieh Jay Lin (NCREE), Dr.Agus Darmawan Adhi (UGM), Dr.Chang (NCREE), Dr. Yeh (NCREE), Joko Wintolo (UGM).

On May 27, 2006, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake on the Richter scale and lasted for 52 seconds struck Central Java and Yogyakarta, center for Javanese traditional arts and culture as well as a center of Indonesian higher education. Because the earthquake was relatively shallow at 33 kilometers under ground, shaking on the surface was more intense than deeper earthquakes of the same magnitude, resulting in major devastation, in particular in the districts of Bantul in Yogyakarta Province and Klaten in Central Java Province. The earthquake took over 5,800 lives, injured around 38,000 more and robbed hundreds of thousands of residential buildings. Meanwhile, the Mt. Merapi’s volcanic activity is increasing and producing lava flows, toxic gases, and clouds of ash, prompting the evacuation of tens of thousands of people. At the same time, the government of Indonesia started the emergency response procedures right after the earthquake while preparing reconstruction and recovery programs. The earthquake was the third major disaster to hit Indonesia within the past 18 months. In December 2004, a major earthquake followed by a tsunami devastated large parts of Aceh and the island of Nias in North Sumatra, and in March 2005, another major earthquake hit the island of Nias again. With Indonesia’s more than 18,000 islands along the Pacific “ring of fire” of active volcanoes and tectonic faults, the recent disaster is a reminder of the natural perils facing this country.

A comprehensive analysis by a team of Indonesian Government and international experts estimate the total amount of damage and losses caused by the earthquake at Rp 29.1 trillion, or US$ 3.1 billion. Total damage and losses are significantly higher than those caused by the tsunami in Sri Lanka, India and Thailand and are similar in scale to the earthquakes in Gujarat (2001) and in Pakistan (2005) (Data from BAPPENAS, 2006). The damage was very heavily concentrated on housing and private sector buildings. Private homes were the hardest hit, accounting for more than half of the total damage and losses (IDR 15.3 trillion). Private sector buildings and productive assets also suffered heavy damage (estimated at IDR 9 trillion) and are expected to lose significant future revenues. An estimated 154,000 houses were completely destroyed and 260,000 houses suffered some damage. More houses will have to be replaced and repaired than in Aceh and Nias at a total cost of about 15% higher than the damage and loss estimate of the tsunami. The impact of the earthquake on public and private infrastructure was relatively limited, with the value of damage and losses estimated at IDR 397 billion and IDR 153.8 billion, respectively. The sector worst affected is energy with damage to the electricity transmission and distribution facilities estimated at a total IDR 225 billion and losses at a further IDR 150 billion from physical damage.

Indonesia is located in a seismically active region. Seismic disaster of earthquake is one of the devastating natural hazards that people in Indonesia must face to this situation. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is often applied in estimating seismic risk in different regions. The hazard curves obtained from the analysis are often in terms of ground motion intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), response spectra, etc. Other quantities, such as soil liquefaction potential, damage-state probabilities of civil infrastructures, number of casualties and amount of losses, are then derived indirectly from the hazard curves of ground motion intensity. Since the relationships among these factors are very complicate, they cannot be expressed as simple linear functions of ground motion intensity parameters. In order to mitigate seismic disasters and to manage catastrophic risks, it is necessary to have appropriate damage assessment tools and risk management strategies in all times including emergency response period as well. The proposed tool must be based on the reliable information from scenario simulation, which is based on the existing inventory database and state-of-the-art analysis models. Therefore, development of such seismic scenario simulation technology is very important in countries that suffer from earthquake threats. This research group intends to study on earthquake disaster management and system in terms of loss estimation and its information technology system which is needed to develop in order to assist the Indonesian government, even local and central government, to minimize the miss management of social economic loss, damaged infrastructure analysis after earthquake occurrence. The proposed system will be used to assist in guided actions in emergency response system and reconstruction plan. The research group is named as DIMAS - Disaster Management System Research Group. The group is working the Indonesian Earthquake Loss Estimation System (IELES) which it is collaboration study between Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta (UMY), National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE) Taiwan and Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta (UGM). The proposed system has been developed from the Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) considering its useful application in Taiwan earthquake experience.

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